Featuring the perspectives of:
Dean Jones
CEO, Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty
Lennox Scott
Chairman and CEO, John L. Scott
Jeff Tucker
Principal Economist, Windermere
Will Ye
U.S. Market Analyst, Rennie
How do you think buyer and seller expectations will evolve in 2026 compared to what we’ve seen over the past few years?
Dean Jones: Yet another year will be defined by national, state and municipal policies, so the real estate industry will demand a new caliber of professional, one who operates less like a salesperson and more like a wealth strategist. The convergence of the $100 trillion “Great Wealth Transfer,” advanced tax policy, demographic shifts and AI-driven data access will erode the value of basic brokerage services based solely on supply and demand. Instead, success will hinge on a brokerage firm’s ability to create and leverage intellectual property — proprietary research, educational content and thought leadership that position brokers as trusted advisors. Affluent clients (and would-be buyers considering their first purchase) increasingly expect real estate guidance that connects lifestyle, tax strategy and long-term wealth planning and economic projections, not just mortgage rates.
Brokerages that fail to integrate financial literacy, advisory partnerships and sophisticated market insight will lose ground to those that do. This is a defining opportunity: to formalize an “Intellectual Brokerage Model” through educating, inspiring and activating brokers as cultural and financial interpreters. In short, 2026 will reward intelligence over inventory. Brokerages that lead provocative, insight-driven campaigns and provide clients with strategic clarity — not just listings — will capture new wealth markets at their inflection point and cement their place as trusted advisors in the next era of real estate.
Lennox Scott: Year 2025 was an adjustment year; in April, sales activity came back down from a frenzy/multiple-offer market to a strong level of intensity, with home prices coming back down from premium pricing to market price. Plus, favorably, home mortgage interest rates have lowered substantially from the high rates in the spring. 2026 will start the year at a new beginning, a strong market where sellers can get their home sold and buyers will have selection and availability to purchase.
Jeff Tucker: I think buyers and sellers will enter spring 2026 with dramatically different expectations: Buyers have fully absorbed the news that inventory has grown enough to make this a buyer’s market, while sellers will be looking to make up for the prematurely interrupted spring 2025 buying season after economic policy shocks and a stock market correction froze buyers last April. Between those two perspectives, I think buyers will have a better read on reality, so many sellers will be forced to come to terms with the market being much less favorable than they had hoped, if they’re determined to sell. But since many of them are what I’m calling discretionary sellers, holding out for the right price, I certainly don’t foresee fire-sale conditions pushing prices down dramatically.
Will Ye: Buyer and seller expectations in 2026 will hinge less on affordability and more on confidence returning to the market. Buyers generally need three things to transact: a reason to purchase, the ability to afford the payment and confidence that conditions will be stable. On the first condition, after four years of uncertainty, many households now have strong lifestyle-driven reasons to move, and more long-term renters will feel pressure to buy. Affordability has also improved modestly: the average 30-year fixed rate is nearly a full percentage point lower than at the start of this year and is expected to continue to fall over 2026. In high-income markets like Seattle, wage growth has softened affordability constraints.
What’s still missing is realigned expectations and general confidence. Many buyers still believe rates will fall further and that a better deal is ahead. But buyers often misjudge where rates are heading. Sellers share that hesitation; many sellers won’t give up low rates, sustaining the current mismatch.
In 2026, we expect confidence to firm as this year’s peak policy uncertainty around tariffs and immigration fades, and the trajectory of the labor market becomes clearer. With more stability, both sides should re-engage, and we anticipate sales counts in the Seattle region to rise 10–15% above 2025 levels but still remain 15-20% below long-term averages.
What role do you see AI, data analytics and emerging tech playing in how agents serve clients and run their businesses by 2026?
Jones: Far beyond techy tools to be enjoyed by brokers, artificial intelligence will ignite a new economic era comparable to the internet and smartphone revolutions combined, driving immense productivity gains, market wealth and investment momentum. Brokers should be more focused on our economic vitality versus marketing conventions and conveniences. With Microsoft, Amazon and Nvidia leading global AI infrastructure from Seattle and Bellevue, the region is emerging as the nation’s next innovation capital, combining deep tech talent, venture access and no state income tax. While the commercial office sector still faces post-pandemic vacancies, this imbalance is already catalyzing an urban renaissance and a runway for growth — redeploying space for mixed-use innovation hubs and flexible living.
Meanwhile, soaring tech stock valuations are creating a wealth effect that fuels high-end residential purchases and a growing second-home economy across the Northwest and Sun Belt. The region’s convergence of technology, tax migration and lifestyle aspiration defines a new market flywheel: affluent clients monetizing stock gains locally and reinvesting globally. Simply put, AI is the new Internet, and Seattle-Bellevue is the next Silicon Valley, poised for a decade of urban revival, rising affluence and record-breaking real estate opportunity.
Scott: We are now living in an AI-everything world. All information and processes at the nano-second. Just as the internet increased client satisfaction, with the speed and availability of all information, AI will take the home search/purchase experience to the next level.
Ye: We’re currently at a turning point: After years of incremental gains, AI is now capable of delivering meaningful time savings and deeper insights. Our firm has long invested in data, intelligence and technology to support agents, maintaining comprehensive datasets on transactions, developments and market trends. Now, we can use AI to leverage that data and generate actionable insights. We have, for example, looked at when the best times are to buy or list in the Seattle market, or examined which submarkets are seeing relatively stronger or weaker performance.
On the operational side, we are already seeing our AI tools help our agents automate routine tasks — assessing lead quality, drafting emails, preparing communications, generating listing photos — freeing them to focus on client relationships and strategy. While the technology is far from perfect, the adoption phase is well underway, and value is available for agents who put in the work in 2026.
What steps will the industry need to take in 2026 to strengthen consumer trust and reinforce the value of Realtor representation?
Jones: The coming market cycle marks a season of change defined by volatility, evolving consumer confidence and demographic realities, and the growing demand for discernment over drama. In this new era, success will belong not to the loudest voices, but to the most seasoned professionals who can interpret data, anticipate trends, and guide clients with calm confidence. As flashy social media stunts lose their grip on credibility, clients and referral sources are turning toward brokers who demonstrate intellectual command and emotional intelligence, those who provide meaningful insight, articulate data points, and steady navigation through shifting markets. This doctrine affirms a return to fundamentals: trusted relationships, disciplined strategy and advisory excellence rooted in global perspective.
The role of the broker is evolving from salesperson to strategic partner, from influencer to interpreter. In 2026 and beyond, the most valuable currency in real estate will be trust — earned through accuracy, empathy and demonstrated results — not just likes on Facebook. Those who embody expertise, discretion and authenticity will not just weather the cycle; they will define it, transforming uncertainty into opportunity and turning every transaction into a testament of reliability that inspires lasting referrals.
Scott: Eighty percent of our business is from a person we already know: repeat, direct and referral business from them. The trusted relationship, looking out for their best interest, is at the core of personal representation.
Ye: One clear step is emphasizing the education, training and licensing requirements that Realtors must meet. Many consumers underestimate the rigor involved, and in some cases, Realtors face skepticism because the barrier to entry is perceived as low.
To build trust, the industry should focus on highlighting the knowledge and skill that Realtors bring to complex transactions, everything from market analysis and pricing strategy to negotiation and regulatory compliance. Consumers place their confidence in recognized experts, not titles alone, so increasing the overall expertise of the Realtor community will be key. This can include continuing education, specialized certifications and transparent communication of an agent’s track record and areas of expertise.
What is being done in the Seattle area to assist first-time buyers? Is enough being done?
Jones: Attainable homeownership in Seattle remains structurally constrained by a convergence of market forces, legislative barriers and risk-based developer behavior. Despite more than 45,000 multifamily units delivered in downtown Seattle’s high-density submarket since 2010, 93% were built as rentals, not for-sale homes, a direct, unintended outcome of the Washington State Condominium Act. Its broad construction-defect liabilities and difficult insurance environment make for-sale condominiums disproportionately risky, pushing developers toward purpose-built rentals and reducing the supply of attainably priced ownership housing in the urban core.
At the same time, statewide rent-stabilization measures, expanding tenant protections, and high rental security reduce the urgency for renters to transition into ownership (not to mention attractive lease-up campaigns), muting demand even when assistance programs exist. Developers also struggle to “pencil” missing-middle housing for sale as land costs, construction inflation, capital constraints, tariffs and moderated price appreciation squeeze pro-forma returns.
Legislation intended to protect consumers and renters is inadvertently suppressing the production of for-sale inventory, limiting pathways for first-time buyers and constraining developers from delivering the attainably priced homes the region urgently needs. At the same time, municipal government policies are impacting consumer confidence in owning their slice of the city, so many consumers are practicing “wait and see,” resulting in a major U.S. city with more renters than homeowners.
Scott: It comes down to having inventory available and down-payment assistance. Accessory Dwelling Units are a good start, but we still need more condominiums for sale. For down-payment assistance, it makes sense to provide for public safety workers and school teachers, so that they can live and contribute locally in the district they serve.
Tucker: In the long run, the most important way to help first-time buyers is to make a diverse range of housing types abundantly available. The gears are in motion to cut some of the red tape, including zoning regulations, that have constricted local housing supply for a generation, but it will take time to dig out of the hole of our local housing shortage. In the short term, down-payment assistance programs and loan support are important pieces of state and local efforts to give a leg up to some first-time buyers, but the need vastly outstrips the available funds.
One silver lining of the slower market rebalancing in buyers’ favor is that homebuyers have a little more breathing room to assemble financing, unlike the arms race of people outbidding each other in multiple-offer situations where not just the amount but the form of financing could be a tiebreaker between offers, like we saw in 2020 through 2022. Now, sellers are much less likely to turn their nose up at an offer backed by FHA financing or down-payment assistance, so such buyers are competing on a more level playing field now.
Ye: Seattle currently offers a mix of city-led down‑payment assistance, nonprofit‑led payment assistance and resale‑restricted housing. These are valuable tools that help preserve a degree of socioeconomic equity in homeownership access. But given the scale of the problem (nationally, the median age of first-time home buyers is 40 as of 2025) and high prices (home prices have appreciated 53% in the Seattle MSA since 2020, while average wages have risen by only 18%), these programs alone are not sufficient to broadly enable first-time buyers across the income spectrum.
These programs should be paired with larger efforts: increasing supply (especially of modest, affordable units), flexible financing options and perhaps tax or policy incentives to soften the cost curve for “middle‑income” first-timers. The city’s recent decision to increase permitting fees by 18% next year is exactly the kind of wrong-headed approach to take. New residential permitting activity over the first half of this year is already down 57% compared to the first half of 2021 in Washington State, which will be a large drag on future supply, and decisions like this will only exacerbate that. It is also widely accepted amongst housing analysts that municipal development fees are ultimately passed onto the buyer. Changes like these will mostly affect condo developments, and new condo supply will be arriving in lower counts and higher prices in the coming years.
How will House Bill 1110 affect your business in 2026?
Jones: One of the most powerful shifts in residential real estate will be the rise of AI-enabled land discovery paired with expanding pro-housing legislation. Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty is leading this movement with proprietary analytical software that identifies on- and off-market sites, aligns them with developers and accelerates the path from entitlement to new construction. As municipalities compete to modernize zoning in this emerging “space race,” brokers trained to recognize micro-housing and infill opportunities will hold a critical competitive edge.
RSIR is preparing its agents for this future by teaching them how to evaluate development feasibility, assist with entitlements, support equity syndication and secure list-back opportunities. The New Developments division is scaling to meet the growing volume of infill projects across expanding submarkets, cultivating a new generation of site-specialist agents and strengthening the brokerage’s leadership in the new-construction niche.
Resale brokers will also benefit as more attainably priced units come online and mortgage rates sharpen, creating new pathways for renters to become homeowners. Yet unfortunately, rising land prices, costly capital, inflation, tariffs and moderating price growth continue to challenge developers. HB1110 is the right zoning but execution will take alignment with market fundamentals to realize the intended results and deliver much needed supply for the “missing middle” housing crisis.
Scott: The Growth Management Act was passed 35 years ago in 1990. The core reasons that the original bill was passed are the same reasons that House Bill 1110 was passed. It’s just the next phase of a 300-year plan.
Tucker: House Bill 1110 is arguably the most important piece of the policy puzzle to unlock future housing-supply growth in Washington cities large and small. Most of its impact will be felt gradually over future years. In 2026, it will trigger more conversations with clients to understand the potential for infill development, especially for listing clients with larger parcels that might soon be rezoned or otherwise accommodate one or more new housing units.
Ye: HB 1110 represents one of the most consequential zoning shifts for decades in Washington. The law legalizes “middle housing” — duplexes, triplexes, four‑plexes, small multiplexes, townhouses, cottage housing and similar — on lots previously limited to single‑family homes.
For our business and our agents, that opens new business opportunities: Landowners in neighborhoods now eligible for higher‑density redevelopment may be more willing to sell, creating more listing activity. At the same time, as affordability issues persist, demand will grow for “missing‑middle” units. These are smaller, more affordable, multi‑unit housing developments closer to transit or core neighborhoods. That expands the buyer pool beyond traditional single‑family purchasers, appealing to first‑time buyers, smaller households and those seeking proximity to jobs/transit.
On the brokerage side, agents will need to adapt as valuations will shift (some land becomes more valuable under redevelopment, while other homes that stay single-family may see increased value as subdivisions increase in frequency), marketing strategies will lean into multi-unit value, and financing or regulatory advisory will become more common as clients navigate new zoning. Ultimately, HB 1110 could broaden both supply and buyer options.
How will the Clear Cooperation Policy/private listings debates evolve in 2026?
The ongoing debate between clear cooperation mandates and off-market exclusivity will reshape how brokerage peers market luxury listings in the Pacific-Northwest while balancing NWMLS Rule 2c. The member-owned listing service, under pressure from lawsuits and shifting industry norms, is expected to refine its rules — allowing limited, documented “exclusive” phases for sellers who demand privacy while preserving the integrity of open-market transparency. This evolution presents opportunity, not risk. Savvy clientele values discretion and reach, and the influential brokers are uniquely positioned to deliver both: a curated pre-market experience for high-net-worth sellers with direct placement opportunities followed by full MLS exposure to optimize value.
The balance lies in transparency — clear seller disclosures, compliance systems and proactive agent training to navigate dual-path listings confidently. As some competitors clash over compliance and competition, other brokerages can distinguish themselves by leading with ethics, elegance and expertise — showing that privacy and professionalism are not opposites but complements. Of course, much of this will require legal opinions and judgments, but for real estate professionals, it’s just another twist and turn to navigate as the largest brokerage amalgamations balance influence with antitrust protections.
Scott: At John L. Scott Real Estate, we believe in 100% representation. When representing sellers, this means full exposure, showcasing their home to the entire market to get the best price in the shortest time, while taking care of privacy concerns. For buyers, this means having access to all homes that are for sale.
Ye: This is an ongoing debate in the Realtor community. On one hand, allowing private or “pocket” listings gives sellers more control over who sees their property and can create a sense of exclusivity, sometimes generating higher sales values. It also provides brokerages with potential competitive advantages and the ability to manage inventory strategically. On the other hand, private listings reduce transparency and limit market access, which can disadvantage buyers and restrict competition.
Rennie’s position as a firm favors increased transparency. We believe that broadly accessible listings benefit all participants.
That said, we expect the legal and regulatory outcome to be less than clear-cut. There are strong incentives on both sides of the dispute, and courts have yet to resolve the tension between MLS/CCP rules and private‑listing networks. 2026 will likely see continued debate, and perhaps patchwork regulatory agreements across different markets.