Featuring the perspectives of:
Jen Cameron
Managing Partner, The Agency Seattle
Dehlan Gwo
Vice President of New Developments, Realogics Sotheby’s International Real Estate
Dean Jones
CEO, Realogics Sotheby’s International Real Estate
Rob McGarty
Founder & Broker, Bushwick Real Estate Services
J. Lennox Scott
Chairman and CEO, John L. Scott Real Estate
Jeff Tucker
Principal Economist, Windermere
What do you expect for the overall housing market for 2025? Up, down or stable? Why?
J. Lennox Scott: I expect 2025 to be a big comeback year for housing with more new resale listings, more homebuyers in the market and more homes going under contract
The Puget Sound housing market is one of the best in the nation, and job growth leads the way. Additionally, half of those moving in today’s market have major home equity. We are already experiencing a frenzy market in the mid-price ranges. After the first of the year, we anticipate an extreme frenzy with multiple offers on everything in the market.
Jeff Tucker: I expect modest growth in both sales volume and prices. The surge in sales activity last fall, around the time the Fed began to cut interest rates, proved that many buyers are poised to jump in the market when conditions are right. If mortgage rates resume declining, as I expect them to do, that should turbocharge the spring buying season again in early 2025. Another key component for more sales volume is more listing activity. We saw encouraging progress on that front throughout 2024, which contributed to the growth of inventory over the year, and I expect that to continue in 2025, as this previously frozen market continues to thaw and gradually normalize.
Jen Cameron: Looking ahead to 2025, I anticipate modest growth in home prices paired with strong sales momentum. While interest rates remain unpredictable, I’m hopeful they’ll see a slight decline. However, the persistent housing shortage will continue to challenge the market — intensifying competition for buyers and discouraging many sellers from listing, further constraining inventory.
Dean Jones: We anticipate sales volumes to increase steadily by at least 10% over 2024, with both sides and median home prices increasing. Those who were practicing “wait and see” in 2024, awaiting the outcome of the U.S. presidential election or wondering about the trajectory of mortgage rates, have their answers and can now press forward with their housing journey. As the reality of rising home prices eclipses any perceived detriment about higher mortgage rates, more consumers will step into ownership (Seattle currently has a majority of residents renting). Savvy investors will “buy then refi” noting the strike price and preferred selection is paramount because waiting will likely result in less selection, more competition and higher prices. A bullish stock market will also curate a wealth effect that will also increasingly transfer into residential real estate. Unfortunately, the dearth of attainably priced new construction will persist, especially for in-city condominiums as developers struggle with underwriting until the market prices pencil the development, which will continue to put pressure on bottom-up pricing. The trend for tech titans requiring a return to work will support the residential renaissance in the urban markets.
Rob McGarty: I expect home prices in Seattle and the Eastside to rise in 2025. People have bought or sold out of necessity over the last two years. People who did not buy are tired of waiting and are ready to buy homes now. Return-to-office mandates will make commutes harder. This will increase demand for homes near work. Some may opt for a smaller home or condo in the city to maintain their lifestyle. Especially families who are frustrated with Seattle Public Schools. I think most will rent their homes with 3% mortgages instead of selling. This will worsen our home shortage and keep prices high.
All economic indicators point to lower mortgage rates. Regardless of mortgage rates, we still see the typical spring bidding wars. It is like the movie Groundhog Day, every year it’s exactly the same. Buyers emerge from hibernation. There’s never enough inventory. So, bidding wars ensue. And every year there are more buyers and fewer sellers.
What growth, if any, do you expect for your company next year?
Cameron: As The Agency Seattle approaches its third anniversary in mid-2025, we’re thrilled to project growth for both our company and our brokers. Since our launch in 2022, we’ve been on an incredible upward trajectory, and we can’t wait to see the exciting opportunities that lie ahead!
Jones: Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty (RSIR) is committed to robust growth in 2025 by developing the existing broker production and adding to the agent count. Recently, RSIR established Project Accelerate, a curriculum of broker best practices designed to inspire, educate and activate our broker’s business development on topics ranging from social media marketing, market research, referral networking, video deployment and giving back to the community. An expanded Talent Acquisition Team will help welcome more than 100 brokers to our local network in 2025, with a commitment to broker onboarding and marketing support to help build better brokers. Additionally, the New Developments Division is doubling-down on business development and selling through a half billion dollars in inventory with investments in AI to help anticipate consumer behavior and explore opportunity with House Bill 1110. Furthermore, RSIR will continue expanding our referral network, attending and hosting Connect Events in the region for visiting broker partners from key feeder markets. Overall, RSIR is targeting sales volumes of $3.5 billion in 2025, representing a 150% increase from 2024 on account of this commitment to grow amidst a market cycle expansion.
McGarty: As the owner of my company, Bushwick will continue to grow. I’m confident we are past the market bottom after the end of the COVID, free-money era. Buyers have acclimated to current mortgage rates. Demand for housing is strong. In Bushwick’s nine years of business, 2024 was a standout year, ranking third behind only 2021 and 2022. I’m expecting an even better 2025.
Scott: Our core value at John L Scott Real Estate is: Living Life as a Contribution®. We do this through our approach to being a contribution to our clients, supporting our teammates, helping the kids at 18 children’s hospitals throughout the Northwest and then taking it home with our family and friends, communities and place of faith.
With our clients, our focus is providing personal representation for each individual buyer or seller, as we provide a quality client experience.
Our main company growth over the last several years has been from internal business growth from our current broker associates, attracting experienced brokers, and in acquiring/merging other real estate companies into John L Scott Real Estate.
What will be the biggest challenges for agents in 2025 and how can they overcome those challenges?
Jones: Agents will always face key decisions about investing in their future and scaling their services amidst an expanding market cycle ahead. This includes expanding their marketing reach, social media presence and for many, aligning with a real estate brand, which adds value to their business trajectory. This can be daunting after a couple of years of sales volume declines for most … However, some opportunities can be nurtured through education and collaborations with their peers. Kicking off new year’s resolutions are a great way to take actions that will cause a reaction in business, and having the discipline to make a change is often the first step. The time to execute is during the winter months when the market cycles are the slowest and before the spring sales season focuses all attention on production instead of business development. It’s commonplace that a successful agent is too busy to pivot from their existing practice, which is why leaning into their evolution requires the strategy and support to grow beyond their status-quo in a flight to quality.
Cameron: In an ever-evolving digital landscape, adopting AI and virtual tools is no longer optional — it’s essential. By leveraging these innovations, agents can streamline their workflows, enhance client experiences and stay ahead in a tech-savvy market.
The real estate industry is constantly adapting to new laws and policies, and staying informed is critical. Agents who proactively adjust their practices to align with these changes will maintain trust and deliver seamless service to clients. Economic shifts can create uncertainty, but agents who diversify their expertise and services will remain resilient. By offering tailored solutions across multiple market segments, agents can better support their clients and navigate fluctuations with confidence.
McGarty: The biggest challenge for agents in 2025 will be for those who haven’t fully embraced the buyer broker agreement process.
Tucker: Agents’ biggest challenges will mirror those of their clients: affordability and competition. On mortgage affordability, homebuyers in the Seattle region face a daunting challenge now that our high local prices have been compounded by higher interest rates. Agents can help to overcome that obstacle by talking frankly with their clients about their budgets and sources for down payments, such as their own home equity if they’re already a homeowner, or in the case of some first-time buyers, gifts from family. On the competition front, agents can help their buyer clients navigate a competitive market by understanding their budgets and targeting homes well inside their maximum to leave room for escalation, as well as encouraging them to give a second look at homes that likely won’t draw multiple offers right away. When advising sellers in a competitive market, agents can shine by helping their home look its very best when staged and photographed, to put their best foot forward and attract multiple offers.
What should be done in 2025 and beyond to address King County’s “missing middle housing” problem?
Tucker: For King County to succeed at delivering missing middle housing, it will require a holistic overhaul of zoning and building codes to find and relax the binding restrictions that prevent these homes from being built. Those include rules related to floor area ratios, setbacks, height limits, lot coverage and parking minimums. While any one such rule might have been well-intended, in aggregate they effectively ban missing middle housing types on common residential lots, and so cities will need bold reform to clear such obstacles from new infill development. It won’t be an overnight solution or a silver bullet, but the extra housing supply in central locations unlocked by such reform will be a key contributor to helping King County grow inclusively.
McGarty: House Bill 1110 aims to fix our missing middle housing problem by allowing higher-density development in single-family-zoned areas — up to six homes per lot. I am hopeful that we see some better designs than the current condominium-ized house+ADU+DADU that are the new construction norm. While HB1110 will add inventory, the nine types of housing allowed are all attached. HB1110 will reduce the number of free-standing, single-family homes that are coveted by consumers. I would love to see options for more, larger, free-standing homes, not just small DADUs. The unfortunate part is that we won’t see HB1110’s effects for two years. Permitting already takes over a year. New permit applications will slow it further. Plus the time to build. HB1110 is a great start. We need to streamline the permitting process to make this plan a reality.
Scott: We are 34 years into the growth management plan that will unfold over 300 years. The Washington State Covenant Homeownership Program offers down payment assistance for several groups. This is a game changer. We need to keep working on the Washington State Condominium Act to find solutions to attract more condominium construction versus just apartments.
Jones: The solution is more housing, which requires willing developers to build for-sale product at affordable price points. The most attainable, and high-volume product line is condominium high-rise development in urban in-fill locations, where zoning is permissive and access to residential services and attractions are available. The problem is values currently do not support new construction, and developers have overwhelmingly elected to build for-rent product vs. for-sale product. Reform to the Washington State Condominium Act would greatly help the issue, as, currently, the limited earnest money deposit and ability for a presale buyer to escape their purchase commitment equates to more risk for the developer. Increasing the earnest money deposit and releasing said funds to the developer would help in the capital stack. Also important, municipalities can work to expedite the permitting costs and protracted entitlement process to reduce the headwinds in bringing new product to the market. This could include upzoning incentives or tax breaks to developers that agree to build for-sale product. The adoption of House Bill 1110 will help bring some in-fill housing options to single-family zones, but the majority of this will be developed for rental income and fall well short of solving the missing-middle housing problem.
Cameron: To address King County’s “missing middle housing” problem in 2025 and beyond, a multifaceted approach is essential. Zoning reforms, such as those enabled by Washington State’s House Bill 1110, can open traditionally single-family zones to diverse housing types like duplexes and townhouses. Offering financial incentives, such as tax breaks and grants, can encourage developers to prioritize these projects, while streamlined permitting processes reduce costs and delays. Community education is equally important to build support by highlighting the benefits of middle housing, including affordability and diversity. Additionally, investing in infrastructure, such as public transportation and amenities, can make areas targeted for middle housing more attractive and livable. Together, these strategies can bridge the gap in the housing market and create more inclusive communities.
Will the development arm of your company add inventory in 2025? Can you tell us about your plans?
Dehlan Gwo: Yes! While we continue to sell our existing developer-inventory in the city, we are excited to announce new project listings in suburban and exurban locations in 2025. Think low-rise condominium and townhome developments in in-demand markets and iconic Pacific Northwest destinations.
Will agents be important to your plans in 2025? If so, how?
Gwo: Of course. Our dynamic, top-producing team of agents at RSIR New Developments are the core of our business. And as far as new construction home sales, our agents are the best in the business. The list of what we accomplished in 2024 is robust, and we are excited for what’s to come in 2025.
Which type of new-construction housing (condo, town home, single-family) do you expect to be most in demand in 2025?
Gwo: I see major supply-demand imbalances for in-city condominium product starting to become very apparent in 2025 and this imbalance accelerating in the following years. The construction pipeline for condominiums in Downtown Seattle and Bellevue has completely dried, since these glassy new high-rises have been (and will likely continue to be) near impossible for developers to pencil-out economically, due to such elevated land and construction costs. However, we know that the in-city population (thus, buyer demand) can balloon much faster than new inventory can be delivered (tower construction takes a minimum of 3-4 years, not to mention entitlements, financing, and all the time it takes to green light a project.). As downtown rebounds and tech employees are being required to return to the office, we have already seen a surge in sales at our condo buildings in the second half of 2024. We are currently living in the “good ol’ days” for condo buyers. As soon as the last of this current cycle’s new towers sell out, there will be a dearth of inventory for years. And when that new product eventually comes on the market, it will be at much higher prices.
